Steve Loffman, managing director at Raymond James, was a guest on the latest episode of Nareit’s REIT Report podcast. Loffman is also a program director and speaker at Nareit’s REITwise: 2024 Law, Accounting & Finance Conference in Hollywood Florida, March 19-21.
Loffman described the contours of the REIT capital market landscape today, noting that broadly speaking, “it's been a little bit challenging,” with REITs trading at a discount to net asset value (NAV). “But as time moves on, and if we believe in the yield curve, which I certainly do, I think we'll be making strides to get closer to NAV from an equity perspective,” he added.
REIT debt markets are going to heal first, “we’re seeing that happen in real time,” Loffman said, with equity issuance likely to occur in the second half of the year. “We'll continue to see most (property) sectors be effective in the debt capital markets. The question is going to be where can equity be placed in an accretive way,” he added.
Elsewhere in the interview, Loffman said:
• Convergence between public and private real estate valuations should occur in the next six to 12 months.
• Once interest rates start to ease, “we should see a continued thaw in share pricing and CRE transactions more broadly.”
• M&A activity will continue in 2024, at similar levels to that seen in 2023, “as long as there continues to be this arbitrage or disconnect between actual value and share price, and there's capital in the market.”
• “As the public markets continue to thaw and share prices continue to increase, we will see significantly more IPO activity, which will be good for the sector.”