The Market Commentary blog on reit.com presents analysis of the macro- and micro-economic fundamentals impacting the REIT and commercial real estate industry. The Nareit economics team offers their commentary on the state of the market, the outlook for commercial real estate and breaking macroeconomic news. The opinions set forth here are solely those of its author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Nareit or its membership.
REITs Start 2019 on a Strong Note
January was the strongest monthly performance for REITs since October 2011.
Demand for Commercial Real Estate Shows No Signs of Slowing
Commercial real estate markets maintained momentum through the end of 2018, as net absorption continued at a high level across major property types.
Update on the Government Shutdown and REITs
In terms of information about the economy, the retail sales report for December and business inventories report for November were early casualties, as these releases planned for Jan 16th were delayed due to the Census Bureau being shuttered by the lack of funding.
Downside Beta and Upside Beta: REITs Have Generally Protected Against Stock Market Declines
REITs have generally protected against stock market declines, with downside beta typically well below one; moreover, their upside beta has usually been higher, giving investors a chance to “have it both ways.”
In the Wake of Stock Market Turmoil: Returns, Volatility, Correlation, Beta, Diversification Benefits, and Forward Expectations for REITs
December 2018 was bitter for investors. Total returns in the broad REIT market were -7.73 percent—but that was good news compared with large-cap stocks (-9.03 percent according to the S&P 500), small-cap stocks (-11.88 percent for the Russell 2000) and especially small-cap value stocks (-12.09 percent).
The Government Shutdown, Financial Markets and REITs
The government appears to be settling in for an extended partial shutdown, at least as of January 2. If the shutdown persists beyond the next few days, however, the closure of several key agencies that produce statistics on the U.S. economy could begin to have an impact on financial markets, including REITs.
New Green Real Estate Index Provide Sustainability Benchmark
Investors with an interest in ESG and sustainability have a new tool, the FTSE EPRA Nareit Green Real Estate Index Series that allows investors to integrate ESG considerations in their portfolios of listed real estate.
REIT Leverage Declines to an All-Time Low
REIT leverage ratios declined on both a book-value and market-value basis in the third quarter, as prudent balance sheet management reduced the sector’s exposure to interest rates.
Inflation and the Fed, Interest Rates and REITs
Two of the oldest rules on Wall Street are “Buy low, sell high,” and “Don’t fight the Fed.” While it can be difficult if not impossible to pick the highs and lows in the stock market, it is not that hard to read the Fed’s signals about future policy.
REITs Report Solid Earnings Growth Through Q3 2018
Funds from operations of all listed equity REITs was 11.1 percent higher than one year earlier, according to the Nareit T-Tracker®.
Strong Commercial Real Estate Fundamentals Continue into Q3
Economic momentum continued into the third quarter causing commercial real estate markets to tighten.
Amazon’s New Headquarters, and REITs
REITs have a strong presence in the office, apartment and hotel markets in both surrounding areas of Amazon’s new headquarters and will be important players in the next phase of development of these cities.