The Market Commentary blog on reit.com presents analysis of the macro- and micro-economic fundamentals impacting the REIT and commercial real estate industry. The Nareit economics team offers their commentary on the state of the market, the outlook for commercial real estate and breaking macroeconomic news. The opinions set forth here are solely those of its author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Nareit or its membership.
REIT M&A in the Spotlight
Mergers and acquisitions involving REITs have been in the spotlight in recent months. The flurry of proposed deals announced in just the first half of this year put the market on pace to set a new record for merger activity in 2018.
Commercial Property Prices Continue Steady Gains
Commercial property prices in April were 9.1 percent higher than one year earlier, according to the CoStar Commercial Repeat Sales Index
Sharpe Ratios for REITs by Property Type
REIT diversification benefits come not merely from their low correlations to other assets but also from their historically strong risk-adjusted returns.
REIT Price Multiples Signal Attractive Investment Opportunities
Current REIT fundamentals and equity market conditions suggest that investing in REITs will likely continue to have such benefits in the period ahead.
Return Correlations between REITs and the Broad Stock Market by Property Type
REIT returns generally have low correlations with returns from the broad stock market. Some REIT property sectors—including Health Care, Self Storage, Residential, Infrastructure, and Data Centers—seem to be especially defensive with average correlations of 65 percent or less even during periods encompassing market crises.
REIT Funds From Operations Totaled $15.3 Billion in 2018:Q1
Total REIT FFO was 3.6 percent higher than in the fourth quarter of 2017 and 6.0 percent above over one year ago.
REIT Total Returns by Property Type: The Value of Exposure to All Sectors of the Real Estate Market
It should come as no surprise that the top-performing sector of the REIT market varies through time, suggesting that most investors will want to maintain exposure to every part of the real estate asset class.
Commercial Vacancy Rates Remain Low, but Rent Growth Slowed in 2018:Q1
CRE Still Benefiting From Economic Fundamentals, Despite Interest Rate Worries
The overall composite price index in March stood 7.9 percent above one year earlier. This increase represents an acceleration of price gains from those during most of 2017, to the most rapid pace since 2016.
REIT Beta by Property Type: Most REIT Sectors Have Brought Down Portfolio Volatility Most of the Time
REITs have provided that diversification benefit because their underlying returns are driven by the real estate market cycle, which is very different from the business cycle that drives the returns of most other companies in the stock market.
The Big Volatility Disconnect: Non-REIT Stock Volatility Jumped in March and April, but REIT Volatility Did Not
For well over a year now, disappointing REIT returns have been blamed on expectations for rising interest rates, and short-term increases in REIT volatility have been blamed on uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of interest-rate changes.
REITs Look Undervalued, Regardless of the Interest Rate Environment
Historically, when REIT dividend yields became high relative to the yields on other income-oriented investments, that has usually been a sign that REITs had become undervalued and were likely to perform strongly over the next several years.