The Market Commentary blog on reit.com presents analysis of the macro- and micro-economic fundamentals impacting the REIT and commercial real estate industry. The Nareit economics team offers their commentary on the state of the market, the outlook for commercial real estate and breaking macroeconomic news. The opinions set forth here are solely those of its author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Nareit or its membership.
U.S. Stock Volatility Spiked. U.S. REIT Volatility Didn’t.
Over the two market days following the Brexit vote U.S. stock market volatility more than doubled, from 9.9% (below its inter-quartile range) to 22.0% (above its IQR)—but U.S. REIT market volatility nudged up by barely one-seventh, from 9.6% to 10.9%.
Dispelling Myths About REIT Property Sales and Purchases
Equity REITs significantly expanded their holdings of income producing real estate in recent years, buying a total of $260 billion of commercial property between 2011 and 2015.
REITWeek 2016: Key Takeaways From This Year’s Conference
A record number of investors, analysts and media attended REITWeek 2016 in New York to meet with management teams and check the pulse of the industry. Here are several key takeaways from this year’s conference.
Property Values Increased During May, Especially in the South Region
Investment real estate values increased by +0.57 percent during May 2016 according to the FTSE NAREIT PureProperty® Index Series, which provides the earliest measurement of changes in the market values of properties held for investment purposes. The South region saw the strongest appreciation at +2.02 percent.
Income Growth Accelerates As REITs Enjoy Rising Occupancy
The recovery in commercial real estate markets for the past several years has been uneven and often disappointing, much like the economy as a whole. More recent news, however, shows a turn for the better—and also signs that conditions may continue to improve.
A Profits Recession? Not for REITs
Financial markets have been troubled by a decline in corporate profits. Earnings per share of the S&P 500 fell 7.6 percent in the first quarter of 2016 compared to last year, prompting a drop in equity prices and concerns about the outlook. But trends are going the other direction in real estate.
REIT Returns, Volatilities, Correlation, Beta: Three Months of Great News
Outlook for Commercial Real Estate: Are We in the 9th Inning?
Many analysts have noted that increasing construction and high prices on commercial properties often presage a downturn in the sector, and have asked whether this cycle may be approaching the 9th inning. NAREIT research economists have examined data from several sources to shed further light on the risks that the sector may be approaching a correction.
Property Values Dip Slightly in April, Mainly in South and West
Investment real estate values declined by -0.32 percent during April 2016 according to the FTSE NAREIT PureProperty® Index Series, which provides the earliest measurement of changes in the market values of properties held for investment purposes.
Are REITs “Just Small-Cap Value Stocks”?
Here’s a comment that was much more common when I started this job in 2006 than it is today: exchange-traded equity REITs, people used to say, are essentially “just small-cap value stocks,” implying that they didn’t offer any significant diversification benefit that you couldn’t get simply by holding a mutual fund or ETF focused on the small-cap value segment of the stock market.
Correlations and Volatilities by Property Type
Stock exchange-listed Equity REITs have historically provided not merely strong long-term total returns and steady current income, but also several forms of diversification.
REIT Performance Under Different Macro Conditions
Macroeconomic data generally suggest that the U.S. economy remains in an extended period of soft growth and soft inflation—in fact, Federal Reserve officials have signaled their intent to continue monetary stimulus and tolerate slightly higher inflation to protect against further macro weakening. How have REIT investors fared in past periods of strong or weak macroeconomic growth, and high or low price inflation?