Macroeconomic fundamentals

Nearly every property sector for REITs & commercial real estate depends on sustained growth of jobs, incomes and consumer spending to drive occupancy and rent growth. The latest data indicate that the recovery in the fundamentals for REITs & real estate remains on track, despite several setbacks during the winter and early spring.

Builders took advantage of spring weather and broke ground on 389,000 (annualized) multifamily units in April, a 32% increase from March. After a long and snowy winter season kept many new projects on hold, the strong uptrend in construction from the past several years appears to be underway again.

April non-farm payrolls and unemployment numbers offer encouragement that the labor market is regaining momentum after a weak show in March. The job market added 223,000 jobs in April, matching its 2014 trend and outpacing average growth in 2015 Q1. Further, the unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, its lowest level post-recession. 

Construction spending fell nearly 60 bps to a seasonally adjusted $966.6 billion in March, its lowest level in six months. Following a flat reading in February, growth in construction spending slowed to a 2% annual rate in March.

The fundamentals for the apartment sector continue to display strong performance. Demand for rental housing surged in the first quarter of 2015, with the total number of rental units increasing by 1.9 million units. This is the second consecutive quarter of healthy increases in rental occupancy, according to Census Bureau data beginning in 1965, surpassing a rise in rental occupancy of 1.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2007 at the onset of the housing crisis.

After a spate of soft numbers had hinted the housing market might stall, more recent reports show the recovery is back on. If the renewed upturn shows staying power, there are important implications not only for the housing sector, but also for the broader economy… and for REITs.
Sales of existing homes rose 6.1% in March, according to the National Association of Realtors®, to a 5.19 million unit annual rate. 

Multifamily housing starts declined in March, on the heels of a double-digit decline in February (first chart). Winter weather had an obvious impact delaying new construction across the nation in February, but the further decline in March suggests that the recent weakening of some macroeconomic trends, in part due to a stronger dollar and its impact on exports, may have damped builders’ enthusiasm for new projects. 

Commercial property prices continued their steady march upwards in February, according to Moody’s/ Real Capital Analytics. Rising occupancy, firming rent growth, increasing transaction activity and still-muted national supply trends are boosting valuations across all property sectors.

Two steps forward, they say, but one step back. In the case of the job market, March was one very big step back. Total nonfarm payrolls increased just 126,000, less than half the average pace over the past six months. There was one bit of positive news in an otherwise disappointing report, however, as average hourly earnings increased 0.3 percent. 

 Maybe the end of winter weather will bring with it a thaw in the housing market. The latest news gives some hope, at least with respect to home sales and house prices. New home sales increased 7.8 percent in February, to an annual rate of 539,000, the strongest sales pace since February 2008. The housing market appears to have worked off most of the excesses from the boom. Inventories of new homes for sale remain low, and the months’ supply of new homes dipped below 5 months.

Payroll employment beat expectations again as nonfarm payrolls jumped 295,000 in February. Job growth has steadily accelerated, with the average monthly increase over the past 12 months moving up to 275,000, the strongest performance in a decade and a half. The unemployment rate moved down to 5.5%, the lowest since before the financial crisis. The question on everyone’s mind is, how long can this continue before an overheating job market prompts the Fed to put on the brakes?